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Ukraine faces civil war after pro-Russia election fix
Nation Is at 'Threshold of a Civil Conflict,' Opposition Candidate Says
KIEV, Ukraine, Nov. 23 -- Opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko took a symbolic oath of office in his country's parliament Tuesday as supporters -- whose numbers swelled to an estimated 200,000 -- rallied in the frigid capital to challenge official vote counts that gave an insurmountable lead to his opponent, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.
The risk of violent unrest in this former Soviet republic of 48 million people heightened as both sides claimed victory and stepped up their rhetoric following a vote Sunday that Western monitors said was marked by widespread fraud.
"Ukraine is on the threshold of a civil conflict," Yushchenko said in parliament. "We have two choices: Either the answer will be given by the parliament, or the streets will give an answer." Supporters wearing ribbons, neckerchiefs and neckties of the campaign's trademark orange color cheered as he took the oath, which had no legal merit.
In the face of the protests and strong condemnation from the United States and the European Union, the government appeared to hesitate. President Leonid Kuchma, who supported Yanukovych, called for negotiations, and there was no sign of a general mobilization of security forces.
"We strongly support efforts to review the conduct of the election and urge Ukrainian authorities not to certify results until investigations of organized fraud are resolved," the White House said in a statement.
Russia, which backed Yanukovych, dismissed foreign charges of electoral fraud as premature and arrogant. "We cannot recognize or protest results that are not yet official," President Vladimir Putin told reporters during a state visit to Lisbon. "Ukraine is a state of law. It doesn't need to be lectured."
With 99.48 percent of precincts counted, Yanukovych had 49.39 percent of the vote compared with 46.71 percent for Yushchenko. The results were official but not final. Exit polls had put Yushchenko well ahead.
Yushchenko supporters continued to mass in Kiev's Independence Square on Tuesday, their numbers reaching an estimated 200,000 as people arrived from different parts of the country following calls for help from Yushchenko. Many skirted police roadblocks to reach the city.
"We need to get as many Ukrainians as possible into Kiev," said Sergei Gayday, a senior strategist with the Yushchenko campaign. He said the goal was to bring out more than 1 million people while seeking redress from either parliament or the Supreme Court.
Several thousand protesters were facing riot police Tuesday night near the offices of President Kuchma in a standoff that so far has remained peaceful. Across the city, dozens of small clusters of Yushchenko supporters could be seen. Protests also expanded in other cities.
Busloads of Yanukovych supporters, mostly young men, have also arrived in Kiev, but so far have stayed in the background.
A senior Western diplomat said Kuchma has been warned that the government should neither certify Yanukovych as the official winner nor use violence to end the demonstrations. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also said Yushchenko and his supporters have been counseled to exercise restraint.
Both camps were divided over whether to escalate their efforts, according to diplomats and strategists with each campaign.
The government is debating whether to wait out the protests or put them down, one government adviser said. Though Kuchma called for negotiations on state television Tuesday night and said the government would not use violence, he stopped short of meeting U.S. and European demands for a review of the election.
The senior Western diplomat said there was increasing evidence that the military and the country's security service would not agree to use force, leaving only Interior Ministry troops or the police. The loyalties of both groups are in question, particularly in Kiev and western Ukraine, Yushchenko strongholds. "You have a government which, to my opinion, doesn't know what to do," said the diplomat.
"They may have been stupid enough to think that obvious, outright fraud would somehow persuade the international community . . . that this was a legitimate election," the diplomat said.
An adviser to the Yanukovych campaign who spoke on condition of anonymity said he expected his candidate to be certified as the winner by the Central Elections Commission on Wednesday. In a statement Tuesday evening, Yanukovych's campaign manager appeared to be preparing the way for such a move when he called on Yushchenko to concede.
"Mr. Yushchenko must help unite the country now that it is apparent that Viktor Yanukovych is Ukraine's president-elect," said Sergei Tyhypko.
Within the Yushchenko camp, some of his chief supporters argue for using the assembled crowds to seize key facilities, including the state television building. But so far, the protesters have limited themselves largely to noisy gatherings in public places.
There were clear signs that Yushchenko's organizers hope to maintain the protests for as long as possible despite the hardship of the severe cold. Mobile food kitchens and generators to run heaters have been moved onto Independence Square, where supporters have pitched tents and announced their intention to remain round-the-clock.
Yushchenko and key advisers have been meeting nightly to map out the next day's strategy, according to Gayday, who has attended the meetings.
On Tuesday, Yushchenko led supporters on a march to the parliament building and then went inside, leaving the crowd outside. Some legislators tried to put forth a vote of no confidence in the Central Elections Commission, but the session was boycotted by lawmakers who support Yanukovych. A quorum could not be reached.
Yushchenko took an oath of office, his hand on a copy of the constitution, as supporters shouted: "Bravo, Mr. President!"
Some of the protesters outside attempted to burst into the building. But they were coaxed back by lawmakers supporting Yushchenko, evidence that the campaign has not yet decided to use force.
The role of the Communist Party in parliamentary maneuvering remains critical and uncertain. Its leader did not endorse any candidate in the second round of voting despite pressure from Russia to back Yanukovych. But if it sides with Yushchenko, there would be enough votes to demand a review of the election and the 11,000 violations that the Yushchenko campaign claims to have documented.
SOURCE: Washington Post (US), "Rally Against Ukraine Vote Swells", 24 November 2004.
[ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6555-2004Nov23.html ]
"The Insider" mailing list article, 24 November 2004.
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